Which country is the greatest threat to the United States? The answer, according to a large proportion of Americans, is clear: China.

Half of all Americans responding to a mid-2023 survey from the Pew Research Center cited China as the biggest risk to the U.S., with Russia trailing in second with 17%. Other surveys, such as from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, show similar findings.

Senior figures in recent U.S. administrations appear to agree with this assessment. In 2020, John Ratcliffe, director of national intelligence under President Donald Trump, wrote that Beijing “intends to dominate the U.S. and the rest of the planet economically, militarily and technologically.”

The White House’s current National Defense Strategy is not so alarmist, referring to China as the U.S.’s “pacing challenge” — a reference that, in the words of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, apparently means China has “the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the power to do so.”

As someone who has followed China for over a quarter century, I believe that many observers have overestimated the country’s apparent power. Recent challenges to China’s economy have led some people to reevaluate just how powerful China is. But hurdles to the growth of Chinese power extend far beyond the economic sector — and failing to acknowledge this reality may distort how policymakers and the public view the shift of geopolitical gravity in what was once called “the Chinese century.”

In overestimating China’s comprehensive power, the U.S. risks misallocating resources and attention, directing them toward a threat that is not as imminent as one might otherwise assume.

Let me be clear: I’m not suggesting that China is weak or about to collapse. Nor am I making an argument about China’s intentions. But rather, it is time to right-size the American understanding of the country’s comprehensive power. This process includes acknowledging both China’s tremendous accomplishments and its significant challenges. Doing so is, I believe, mission critical as the United States and China seek to put a floor underneath a badly damaged bilateral relationship.

Headline numbers

Why have so many people misjudged China’s power?

One key reason for this misconception is that from a distance, China does indeed appear to be an unstoppable juggernaut. The high-level numbers bedazzle observers: Beijing commands the world’s largest or second-largest economy depending on the type of measurement; it has a rapidly growing military budget and sky-high numbers of graduates in engineering and math; and oversees huge infrastructure projects — laying down nearly 20,000 miles of high-speed rail tracks in less than a dozen years and building bridges at record pace.

But these eye-catching metrics don’t tell a complete story. Look under the hood and you’ll see that China faces a raft of intractable difficulties.

The Chinese economy, which until recently was thought of as unstoppable, is beginning to falter due to deflation, a growing debt-to-gross domestic product ratio and the impact of a real estate crisis.

China’s other challenges

And it isn’t only China’s economy that has been overestimated.

While Beijing has put in considerable effort building its soft power and sending its leadership around the world, China enjoys fewer friends than one might expect, even with its willing trade partners. North Korea, Pakistan, Cambodia and Russia may count China as an important ally, but these relationships are not, I would argue, nearly as strong as those enjoyed by the United States globally. Even in the Asia-Pacific region there is a strong argument to say Washington enjoys greater sway, considering the especially close ties with allies Japan, South Korea and Australia.

Even though Chinese citizens report broad support for the Communist Party, Beijing’s capricious COVID-19 policies paired with an unwillingness to use foreign-made vaccines have dented perceptions of government effectiveness.

Further, China’s population is aging and unbalanced. In 2016, the country of 1.4 billion saw about 18 million births; in 2023, that number dropped to about 9 million. This alarming fall is not only in line with trends toward a shrinking working-age population, but also perhaps indicative of pessimism among Chinese citizens about the country’s future.

And at times, the actions of the Chinese government read like an implicit admission that the domestic situation is not all that rosy. For example, I take it as a sign of concern over systemic risk that China detained a million or more people, as has happened with the Muslim minority in Xinjiang province. Similarly, China’s policing of its internet suggests concerns over collective action by its citizens.

The sweeping anti-corruption campaign Beijing has embarked on, purges of the country’s military and the disappearance of leading business figures all hint at a government seeking to manage significant risk.

I hear many stories from contacts in China about people with money or influence hedging their bets by establishing a foothold outside the country. This aligns with research that has shown that in recent years, on average as much money leaves China via “irregular means” as for foreign direct investment.

A three-dimensional view

The perception of China’s inexorable rise is cultivated by the governing Communist Party, which obsessively seeks to manufacture and control narratives in state media and beyond that show it as all-knowing, farsighted and strategic. And perhaps this argument finds a receptive audience in segments of the United States concerned about its own decline.

It would help explain why a recent Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey found that about a third of American respondents see the Chinese and American economies as equal and another third see the Chinese economy as stronger. In reality, per capita GDP in the United States is six times that of China.

Of course, there is plenty of danger in predicting China’s collapse. Undoubtedly, the country has seen huge accomplishments since the People’s Republic of China’s founding in 1949: Hundreds of millions of people brought out of poverty, extraordinary economic development and impressive GDP growth over several decades, and growing diplomatic clout. These successes are especially noteworthy given that the People’s Republic of China is less than 75 years old and was in utter turmoil during the disastrous Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1976, when intellectuals were sent to the countryside, schools stopped functioning and chaos reigned. In many cases, China’s successes merit emulation and include important lessons for developing and developed countries alike.

China may well be the “pacing challenge” that many in the U.S. believe. But it also faces significant internal challenges that often go under-recognized in evaluating the country’s comprehensive power.

And as the United States and China seek to steady a rocky relationship, it is imperative that the American public and Washington policymakers see China as fully three-dimensional – not some flat caricature that fits the needs of the moment. Otherwise, there is a risk of fanning the flames of xenophobia and neglecting opportunities for partnership that would benefit the United States.

Dan Murphy is the executive director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School.

Have an opinion?

This article is an op-ed and, as such, the opinions expressed are those of the author. If you would like to respond, or have an editorial of your own you would like to submit, please email us.

Want more perspectives like this sent straight to you? Subscribe to get our Commentary & Opinion newsletter once a week.

A well-known legal axiom has it that the cover-up is often worse than the crime.

President Richard Nixon’s attempts to conceal his administration’s involvement in the Watergate break-in, for example, ultimately led to his humiliation and resignation.

Oftentimes, however, the crime and the cover-up are equally appalling. An ongoing scandal involving the U.S. Coast Guard provides a vivid case in point.

In late June, CNN reported that an internal investigation by the Coast Guard had “uncovered a dark history of rapes, assaults, and other serious misconduct” at the Coast Guard Academy.

Moreover, investigators discovered that the agency’s senior leadership had covered up most of those crimes and then subsequently buried the investigative report that substantiated the grave misconduct.

Lawmakers: Coast Guard academy sex assaults threaten national security

The Coast Guard’s original investigation, dubbed “Operation Fouled Anchor,” was started in 2014 after a 1998 academy graduate alleged that she had been raped by a classmate years prior. The agency’s exhaustive inquiry extended over five years and the final report was issued on January 31, 2020.

In the end, Coast Guard investigators substantiated sixty-two cases of sexual harassment, sexual assault, and rape between 1988 and 2006.

Adm. Paul F. Zunkunft was the Coast Guard commandant when the probe started and was succeeded in June 2018 by Adm. Karl L. Schultz. At the time of the transition, investigators planned to brief Department of Homeland Security officials and members of Congress on their preliminary findings, and they had already concluded that Operation Fouled Anchor should be “required reading.”

But according to CNN, Schultz and his vice commandant, Adm. Charles W. Ray, instead covered up the report’s criminal findings to avoid a sex abuse scandal and protect the Coast Guard’s reputation.

Guard leaders went as far as to require government officials familiar with the investigative case to sign non-disclosure agreements. Disturbingly, this was occurring at the very time that two congressional committees were investigating the Coast Guard over allegations of promoting a hostile work environment.

Adm. Ray retired in 2021. Schultz followed the next year and was succeeded as commandant by Adm. Linda Fagan, who has admitted to having some knowledge of Operation Fouled Anchor prior to CNN’s reporting.

Fagan, however, did not begin briefing the agency’s congressional overseers until after she learned that CNN had begun investigating the secret probe.

Last fall, Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, where the Coast Guard Academy is located, announced that the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations had opened an inquiry into the scandal and called the episode “probably the most shameful, disgraceful incident of cover-up of sexual assault that I have seen in the United States military ever.”

Fellow Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy posted on social media that Coast Guard leaders “were deliberately hiding the truth” and he demanded the firing of “anyone involved in this cover-up.”

For years, I have been calling on Coast Guard Academy leadership to be transparent about sexual assault on campus and get serious about reform. Instead, we now know they were deliberately hiding the truth. Anyone involved in this cover-up should be terminated. It's that simple. https://t.co/bYpmJlV2p2

— Chris Murphy 🟧 (@ChrisMurphyCT) June 30, 2023

Following CNN’s initial reporting on the scandal in June, Fagan issued a rare public apology for the Coast Guard’s failure to protect the victims of sexual abuse and to successfully prosecute the perpetrators. In August, she went further. In a letter sent to the entire Coast Guard workforce, the commandant admitted that agency leaders had failed to demonstrate the “courage and discipline” to act in a transparent manner consistent with the Coast Guard’s core values.

Fagan wrote that the leadership had betrayed the victims and that the organization’s concealment of the sex crimes had “shattered” trust and respect.

If the Coast Guard wants to regain trust and respect, there must be accountability at the highest levels of leadership, including active duty and retired officers.

If, as it appears, admirals Schultz and Ray participated in a conspiracy to cover up these crimes, then they should be punished judicially. Recalling the flag officers to active duty to face courts-martial would provide them fair opportunities to defend themselves.

The actions or inactions of admirals Fagan and Zunkunft must also be examined closely. What exactly did Fagan know? When did she know it, and what did she do about it?

Since the CNN story broke, Zunkunft has spoken out about the “betrayal up the chain of the command” and how “incredulous” he is that Schultz and Ray chose not to brief Congress in 2020.

However, congressional investigators must ask why Zunkunft did not take action himself when he realized that the Coast Guard’s leadership was intentionally avoiding disclosure of the substantiated findings of Operation Fouled Anchor. Being in the retired ranks does not allow an admiral to relinquish his ethical and legal obligations.

Unfortunately, there is an ugly history of American admirals participating in the cover-up of illegal activities. In 1990, Navy Rear Adm. John Poindexter was found guilty of five felonies related to the Iran-Contra scandal. His crimes included obstruction of justice for falsifying and destroying documents and for lying to various congressional committees.

College president resigns amid Coast Guard Academy investigation

In 1991, the Navy’s infamous Tailhook scandal broke and it ultimately led to the punishment of more than a dozen flag officers. Some of the admirals had attempted to cover up the sex crimes committed at the annual convention of naval aviators.

Much more recently, the Navy has suffered through the “Fat Leonard” public corruption scandal. The careers of at least a dozen admirals have been negatively impacted, including one flag officer who served eighteen months in federal prison for various crimes, including the destroying of evidence and lying to investigators.

Only time will tell if the Coast Guard’s admiralty and senior civilian executives will be held accountable for their apparent misconduct related to Operation Fouled Anchor. In a democratic society, flag officers, active duty and retired, must be held to the highest standards.

And with a demonstration of strict accountability and complete transparency, aspiring senior leaders will be cautioned: the crime of a cover-up can be as disgraceful as the original offense.

According to multiple studies from both inside and outside the Department of Defense, only one-third of military members meet the recommended minimum guidelines of seven hours of sleep. The military hates sleep, and it is breaking the force.

The connection between sleep and physical performance is generally understood, but sleep’s relationship with mental health, stress management, and cognitive function is less recognized. Slow-wave, or deep sleep, and rapid eye movement, or REM, sleep, are key to restorative rest. During these cycles, the brain recovers from its daily workload, prioritizes information, commits lessons to memory, and dumps non-essential data.

A well-rested service member learns faster, is more resilient to stress, and has greater cognitive function compared to one with low quality (not enough slow-wave or REM sleep) or a low quantity of sleep. In fact, a recent study of more than 5,000 Army soldiers showed that soldiers had lower body fat percentage, exercised more per week, and were significantly less likely to use tobacco compared to those who slept less than seven hours a night. Essentially, the military gets a better service member when they are well rested.

While the benefits of sleep are clear, the health risks associated with a lack of sleep are also profound. A Veterans Health Administration study of recent combat veterans showed that 72% reported low sleep quality. Those who reported low sleep quality had a five times higher risk for post-traumatic stress disorder, nine times higher risk of major depressive disorder, and six times higher rate of suicidal ideations. Another study of recent veterans linked poor sleep efficiency and quality with greater psychological distress. This means veterans or service members are not only more likely to become depressed or have suicidal ideations, but they are also less able to manage the psychological distress associated with those conditions.

Additionally, the consequences of sleep deficiency also compound over time. Sleep debt is accrued through consecutive nights of poor sleep. The more sleep debt, the more pronounced the repercussions in physical performance, cognitive function and psychological resiliency. As the body reacts to a lack of sleep, it will prioritize critical life functions over non-essential tasks. Reaction time will increase, immune function will decrease, and emotional control is stunted leading to poor decision-making. As a result, service members are more prone to make mistakes, some of which could be fatal.

To address the impacts listed above, senior leaders must first appreciate the necessity of sleep and place a much higher priority on recovery. That includes training leaders at all levels on the importance of sleep, investing in biometric tracking technology to help service members understand their individual sleep metrics and empowering junior leaders to establish a culture that values sleep.

This does not mean that the military can only work an eight-hour day. The nature of war and its physical and psychological toll has not changed. However, leaders should limit the exposure of sleep deprivation, train service members how to recover from a lack of sleep and provide the time needed regain the cognitive function necessary before starting high risk events.

In a world that incentivizes toughness, selflessness, and perseverance, sleep quickly becomes a casualty of the culture. While the scientific and sports communities understand the essential nature of sleep to aid in performance, health, and overall recovery, the military maintains its course believing toughness can overcome the necessity of sleep.

In closing, the benefits of proper sleep are as constructive as the impacts of poor sleep are destructive. While the military contends with mental health issues and a rising suicide rate across all components, leaders are failing to address an underlying cause. No amount of resiliency training can overcome a chronically under-rested force. The mental health trends seen today will continue until the military sheds its war on sleep.

Maj. Dave Nixon is an active duty Army Officer currently assigned to the XVIII Airborne Corps Headquarters at Fort Liberty, North Carolina. The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Department of the Army or the Department of Defense.

Have an opinion?

This article is an Op-Ed and as such, the opinions expressed are those of the author.

If you would like to submit a letter to the editor, or submit an editorial of your own, please email opinions@militarytimes.com for Military Times or our services sites. Please email opinion@defensenews.com to reach Defense News, C4ISRNet or Federal Times. Want more perspectives like this sent straight to you? Subscribe to get our Commentary & Opinion newsletter once a week.